終於官方宣傳！備受矚目的亞馬遜第二總部選址於美國東部時間11月13日發布，亞馬遜宣布將在紐約市皇后區的長島市和北弗吉尼亞州阿靈頓市的水晶城共同設立公司的第二總部。兩地將均分亞馬遜先前承諾過的50億美元投資和5萬個高薪就業機會。
238個北美城市爭奪
當然，這條官方消息也讓北美的236個城市感到失望。一年前亞馬遜宣布第二總部計劃，共有238個北美城市向亞馬遜提交了投標方案，多數給出了相當的優惠政策。許多評論曾寄望亞馬遜的第二總部計劃或可重振、改造一個陷入困境、發展停滯的城市或地區，很顯然他們的希望落空。
然而許多財經界人士已經在早前對亞馬遜的選擇作出了成功預測。財經媒體彭博專欄作家賈斯丁·福克斯在亞馬遜正式官方宣傳前一周，也就是11月7日曾發表文章預測，幾乎所有人都預計亞馬遜公司(Amazon.com Inc.)會在華盛頓地區的某個地方選址，作為其大肆宣傳的第二大總部所在地。該公司正在考慮的不僅僅是一個第二總部，而是兩個第二總部，而且其中一個預計將與華盛頓隔波多馬克河相望，另一個則很大可能是皇后區長島市。
福克斯還特別指出，對於皇后區長島市來說，亞馬遜可為這裡帶來許多全新的產業和創意。不過，對於紐約市來說，情況並非如此。紐約已經有很多人在科技行業工作，主要集中在曼哈頓。近年來，隨著金融業就業崗位的減少，科技行業的增長一直是經濟增長的主要推動力。這篇文章的標題是“紐約已經成為一座科技之城”——紐約已有非常多的市民從事科技相關產業，可能這也是亞馬遜選擇皇后區長島市作為第二總部選擇之一的原因。
第二總部建設也將幫到其他城市
這也是亞馬遜的這次官方宣傳引起爭議之處——選擇了已經繁榮的長島市和水晶城，而不願意進行“扶貧”。作為已經繁榮的地區，長島市(Long Island City)和水晶城(Crystal City)沒必要通過亞馬遜來進行“複興”。相反，它們的中選正是因為良好的基礎設施(可用的公寓住房等)、良好的營商環境、大量高科技人才供應等。不過亦有評論認為，儘管亞馬遜的選擇面臨批評聲音，但如果它能負責任地在兩地建設第二總部，它仍有機會挽回一些損失。
有評論認為，亞馬遜的第二總部建設也將幫助到其他城市。首先，這表明科技公司正在拓展海灣和西雅圖以外的地區。這表明，隨著成本和人才競爭的更新，在任何一個都會區的擴張都是有限的。這些新技術工人在美國東北部的樞紐城市所帶來的高成本和擁堵，將不可避免地導致其他一些人才和公司決定不搬到紐約和華盛頓。高額的通勤成本甚至可能促使現有的人才和公司開始尋找更便宜的場地。比如，一些人可能會搬到波士頓、費城或芝加哥等類似的大都市，而另一些人可能會搬到羅利、納什維爾或亞特蘭大等較小的地區。也許15萬美元的高薪科技崗位將流向最富裕的城市，但與此同時9萬美元薪酬的技術崗位將不得不轉移到成本更低的地方。這樣的連鎖反應或將把繁榮擴展到更多的大都市地區。
What Amazon’s HQ2 Could Look Like
The Bezos has spoken. Amazon’s HQ2 is officially a split-decision between Long Island City in Queens， New York， and Crystal City in Arlington， Virginia-the predictable epicenters of finance， commerce and government.
The official news leaves 236 other cities feeling extremely disappointed (or even used) like they were part of some bizarre， overhyped Seinfeld finale. Many believe Amazon missed a golden opportunity to revitalize or transform a financially distressed city or region.
Justin.Fox， a business opinion journalist in Bloomberg， just made a prediction of Amazon’s HQ2 a week before the announcement. He said， just about everybody， myself included， expected Amazon.com Inc. to pick somewhere in the Washington area as the site of its much-ballyhooed second headquarters. Less expected has been the news that the company is contemplating not just one “HQ2” but two， and that while one is indeed expected to be located across the Potomac River from our nation’s capital， the other will reportedly be across the East River from Manhattan.
For Long Island City， the neighborhood in Queens where Amazon may put down roots， this status as a prospective technology hotbed is something new and different. For New York City， though， it really isn’t. New York already has lots of people working in tech， mainly in Manhattan， and growth in tech has been a major economic driver in recent years as employment in the financial sector has sputtered. The title of this article is “New York Is Already a Tech Town”--there are tons of people in the city doing the kinds of thing that Amazon does， which is probably why the company has set its sights on it.
As already thriving districts， Long Island City and Crystal City didn’t wait for Amazon to launch their renaissance. They were rewarded for their booming condo development， available housing， commercial viability and high-tech worker supply. While Amazon takes the criticism like an uppercut to the chin， there’s still a chance for some redemption if it builds HQ2-3 responsibly.
First， it’s noteworthy that tech companies are looking outside of the Bay Area and Seattle to begin with. This suggests that， as costs and competition for talent escalate， there are limits to expansion in any one metro area.
What’s less apparent are the second-order effects that will be set in motion by Amazon and Google’s expansion plans. Higher costs and congestion brought about by all these new tech workers in Northeast hubs will inevitably lead to some other workers and companies deciding against moving to New York and Washington. The costs might even prompt existing workers and companies to start searching for cheaper pastures.
Some may move to similar metro areas such as Boston， Philadelphia or Chicago， while others may go to smaller areas such as Raleigh， Nashville or Atlanta. Perhaps the $150，000 tech jobs will go to the richest cities. But the $90，000 tech jobs， unable to compete on cost， will have to go somewhere cheaper. The ripple effects will spread prosperity to more metro areas.
南都記者 張沛 綜合整理自 Bloomberg
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